What the tariffs were actually costing

The 10% tariff was costing the Scotch whisky industry an estimated £4 million per week in lost exports. US export volumes fell 15% and value fell 7% in the May to December period following the tariff’s introduction in April 2025. For the full year, US exports fell from £971m and 132 million bottles in 2024 to £933m and 120 million bottles in 2025.

There was also a worse scenario in the background. A five-year suspension of the original 25% tariffs on single malt Scotch was set to expire by July 2026 if no permanent deal was reached. The royal visit resolved both problems at once.

A longer history than most people realise

The tariff story didn’t start with Trump’s second term. It goes back to October 2019, when the US imposed a 25% tariff on single malt Scotch whisky as a retaliatory measure in a long-running WTO dispute between the US and EU over aircraft manufacturing subsidies. Scotch whisky had nothing to do with the underlying dispute — it was caught in the crossfire.

Some relief came in June 2021 with a five-year suspension, but that suspension was always time-limited. Trump’s second term then introduced a new 10% blanket tariff in April 2025. The April 2026 announcement removed both threats at once.

Why this matters to investors specifically

Whisky is a long-horizon investment. New distilleries won’t sell their first aged spirit until the early 2030s at the earliest. That kind of business requires confidence in stable export markets, particularly the US. The removal restores that confidence at exactly the moment a new generation of craft and estate distilleries are deciding whether to proceed.

There’s also a less obvious dimension. Scottish distillers are the world’s largest buyers of used Kentucky bourbon barrels. The two industries are more interdependent than the headlines suggest.

What single-estate means and why it matters

Most distilleries source barley from multiple farms, draw water from various supplies, and mature casks in warehouses across different regions. A genuine single-estate distillery is different: barley grown on the same land, water from the same local source, and production, maturation and bottling all under one roof. That level of provenance carries the most weight in the US market.

The estate model also creates a more resilient investment structure with multiple revenue streams across production, tourism, events and farming.

Fetternear Estate: a current example

Inverurie Distillery is converting the Listed Fetternear Home Farm stables in Aberdeenshire into a single-estate whisky distillery. Barley will be grown on-site, water drawn locally, and energy will come from estate biomass, solar and ground-source heat. The estate sits in one of Scotland’s richest barley-growing regions with history stretching back to 640 AD.

Planning consent and Listed Building Consent have already been granted. First production is planned for early 2027.

The bigger picture

The tariff removal is both encouraging and cautionary. After years of unpredictability, stable US market access is what makes the long-horizon commitment viable. The tariffs are gone. Distilleries can plan again.

Having grown up in the North East of Scotland, Mike has a deep appreciation for the role Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire have played in whisky’s wider story, and brings with him a wealth of knowledge, experience, and genuine local connection. We are thrilled to have him on board and look forward to building something truly special for the region together.

In Mike’s own words:

“I’m Mike Stuart, founder of the Inverurie Whisky Shop and Foghouse Spirits in Inverurie, Aberdeenshire. My aim is simple: make Scotch whisky welcoming — whether you’re brand new to it or you’ve been drinking it for years.

I’m proud to have grown up in the North East of Scotland and I’m passionate about the part Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire have played in whisky’s wider story, from the land and raw materials to the people and traditions that helped shape the industry.

I’m also delighted to have been asked to be involved in consulting with the Inverurie Distillery project, which I’m genuinely excited about. I’m looking forward to helping create a lasting legacy of whisky distillation on my home turf and bringing a host of new opportunities right to our doorstep.”